China's new gas plan strengthens supply flexibility and supports industrial demand, but its impact on LNG imports and Asian prices remains limited, Kpler said Friday.
Kpler kept its 2026 LNG import forecast at 60.6 million tons, as coal-to-gas conversions typically take 3-6 months and Asian LNG prices are expected to ease from April 2027.
The 15th Five-Year Plan adds about 0.7 billion cubic meters to Kpler's 2027 non-power gas demand forecast, with stronger policy support for gas use in industries that remain difficult to electrify.
Released Aug. 17, the sector-specific plan sets China's oil and gas priorities through 2030, with energy security and system flexibility at the center of its strategy.
The plan targets 440 million tons of oil equivalent in domestic oil and gas supply, 220,000 kilometers of long-distance oil and gas pipelines, 200 million tons per annum of LNG receiving capacity and more than 13% storage coverage.
It also sets a target of 114 bcm per year for land-based pipeline imports, while encouraging LNG use in heavy trucks and shipping and gas-fired power generation for peak demand.
Compared with the 14th Five-Year Plan, Beijing places greater emphasis on flexibility and resilience while retaining the storage target at about 13% of national gas consumption, Kpler said.
The previous plan targeted more than 230 bcm of national gas production, about 210,000 km of oil and gas pipelines, and 55-60 bcm of storage capacity by 2025.
Gas-fired power generation should remain focused on peak demand rather than baseload use, limiting utilization as renewable generation expands, while electrification policies could also constrain medium-term gas demand.
China's domestic gas production forecast remains at 270 bcm in 2026, 282 bcm in 2027, and 297 bcm in 2028, up from 262 bcm in 2025.
China is expected to have about 158.5 mtpa of active LNG regasification capacity in 2026, with another 38.4 mtpa under construction.
Kpler said the existing and planned infrastructure keeps China broadly on track to reach its 200 mtpa LNG receiving target by 2030, despite slower growth in LNG demand.
Average regasification utilization is expected to fall from 42% in 2025 to 38% in 2026, then recover to 40% in 2027.
China's gas storage capacity nearly doubled from about 24 bcm in 2020 to around 47 bcm in 2025, lifting storage coverage from roughly 7% to 11% of annual consumption.
By end-2025, China had about 105 bcm per year of pipeline import capacity, leaving roughly 9 bcm per year to reach the new 114 bcm target.
Existing capacity includes 55 bcm per year through the Central Asia A, B and C pipelines, 12 bcm through Myanmar and 38 bcm through Power of Siberia 1, Kpler said.
Kpler forecasts pipeline imports at 80.8 bcm in 2025, 81.9 bcm in 2026, and 88.5 bcm in 2027, with utilization at 77%, 78%, and 76%, respectively.
Overall, the plan expands China's ability to manage supply disruptions and price swings more than it increases LNG demand, with the additional 2027 requirement too small to materially change Asian LNG prices, Kpler said.