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China's Crude Imports to Stay up to 1.5 Million b/d Below 2025 Levels in H1 2026, Vortexa Says

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China's crude imports are likely to remain about 1-1.5 million barrels per day below last year's average in H1 2026, with the ongoing Middle East crisis accelerating structural changes in the country's oil demand, Vortexa strategists said in a Wednesday note.

In June, the country's oil imports declined for the fourth straight month, with crude inflows about 4.4 mmbbl/d below the 2025 average.

Meanwhile, seaborne crude imports dropped to just over 6 mmbbl/d, the lowest monthly level since at least 2016, while Middle Eastern imports fell to about 2 mmbbl/d, down from an already decade-low 3 mmbbl/d in May.

As per Vortexa's high-case scenario, which assumes the best-case recovery for crude demand under current conditions, an increase in refinery throughput due to the removal of fuel export curbs, inventory replenishment, and continued stock building could help offset a large share of the 4.4 mmbbl/d Hormuz-related loss.

While a recovery in domestic fuel demand is expected, some of the decline in gasoline and diesel use appears "structural rather than cyclical," with at least 400,000 b/d of the estimated 1.2 mmbbl/d domestic fuel demand decline unlikely to return, Vortexa analysts said.

Policy and inventory-led factors such as higher refinery activity, stock rebuilding, and rising inventories could help recover much of the crude demand lost due to the Hormuz disruption.

However, consumption-led drivers, including weaker fuel demand, rising electric vehicle use, and lower crude-to-chemicals activity, may limit a sustained recovery, Vortexa said.

"In other words, the next phase of China's crude market will be defined less by stronger end-user demand than by refinery policy, export incentives and inventory management," analysts said.

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