FINWIRES · TerminalLIVE
FINWIRES

China Posts Wider Fiscal Deficit in First Five Months Despite Revenue Acceleration

By
China Posts Wider Fiscal Deficit in First Five Months Despite Revenue Acceleration

China booked a general public budget deficit of 1.34 trillion yuan in the first five months of 2026, as national expenditure of 11.39 trillion yuan outpaced revenue of 10.05 trillion yuan despite an acceleration in tax collections.

The deficit widened from 1.14 trillion yuan in the January-April period, with May alone adding about 1.71 trillion yuan in revenue against about 1.91 trillion yuan in spending, according to data from the Ministry of Finance on Sunday.

This suggests a single-month deficit of about 200.7 billion yuan in May.

The pace of expenditure growth, however, slowed to 0.8% year over year through May from 1.3% through April, suggesting the gap may begin to narrow in the coming months as revenue momentum builds.

In March, Fitch Ratings forecast that China's fiscal deficit will slightly narrow as policy support for the economy is predicted to ease modestly in 2026.

"We expect China's fiscal deficit to decline slightly to 7.3% of GDP in 2026 on a like-for-like basis under Fitch's fiscal deficit measure, from 7.6% in 2025, but to remain elevated," Fitch said at the time.

During the government's "Two Sessions" congress in March, authorities announced that China will aim to increase the government deficit by 230 billion yuan in 2026 over last year as part of its economic stimulus measures.

China set a deficit-to-GDP ratio of around 4% this year, with total government deficit projected at 5.89 trillion yuan.

General public budget revenue rose 4% year over year in the January-May period, accelerating from the 3.5% pace recorded through April.

National tax revenue climbed 4.4% to 8.26 trillion yuan, outpacing the 2.2% rise in non-tax revenue to 1.78 trillion yuan.

Among the main growth drivers were stamp duties, which jumped 35.8% year over year in the January-May period to 242.6 billion yuan, with securities transaction stamp duty alone surging 88.8% to 126.2 billion yuan.

Value-added tax on imported goods and individual income tax also delivered strong gains, rising 10.4% and 12.2%, respectively, suggesting robust cross-border trade and wages.

Vehicle purchase tax climbed 12.6% to 94.3 billion yuan amid increased adoption of new-energy vehicles. NEV sales in May alone accounted for 56.9% of overall new car sales in China, compared with 50.8% in 2025 and 40.9% in 2024, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.

Domestic value-added tax jumped 6.2% to 3.28 trillion yuan, while corporate income tax inched up 0.2% to 2.19 trillion yuan.

In terms of spending, China's total general public budget expenditure during the period was up 0.8% year over year to 11.39 trillion yuan.

In breakdown, spending among central and local governments and the general public jumped 6.5% year over year to 1.68 trillion yuan, while spending among local governments inched down 0.1% to 9.71 trillion yuan.

The latest data highlighted the ongoing financial strain faced by local governments.

The South China Morning Post on Monday noted that local governments in China have faced worsening fiscal stress in recent years due to a prolonged property downturn that continues to weigh heavily on land-sales revenues, which previously served as a key revenue source.

In the January-May period, while urban land use tax rose 3.6% to 122 billion yuan, farmland occupation tax fell 1.2% to 63.5 billion yuan.

Earlier this month, China's State Council issued a plan to accelerate agricultural and rural modernization during the 15th Five-Year Plan through 2030. The plan includes speeding up the modernization of agriculture and rural areas.

Related Articles

China Keeps Benchmark Lending Rates Unchanged for 13th Straight Month
US Markets

China Keeps Benchmark Lending Rates Unchanged for 13th Straight Month

China kept its benchmark rates unchanged for the 13th straight month in June as expected, reflecting caution over uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict and mixed domestic economic data.The one-year loan prime rate or LPR stayed at 3% and the five-year LPR was unmoved at 3.5%, according to the People's Bank of China on Monday.The figures are aligned with the no-change forecast given by 30 market participants surveyed by Reuters.Both rates have been kept unchanged since June 2025.The decision reflects caution as Middle East tension remains. The U.S. and Iran are still negotiating for a peace treaty that could end their war. A joint statement from mediating countries Qatar and Pakistan said the parties agreed to a roadmap towards reaching a final deal in 60 days.Analysts from ANZ predicted that the rates will remain, but fiscal spending might pick up as the global oil shock gradually wanes."We also maintain our view of no rate cut this year, while seeing scope for targeted supportfrom the People's Bank of China," ANZ economists Vicky Xiao Zhou, Zhaopeng Xing and Raymond Yeung said in a May 16 note.Domestically, China's economic data in May was mixed. Weak demand brought down retail sales and fixed asset investment last week, but industrial production grew stronger than expected due to external demand.Official data showed that retail sales slipped 0.6% from a year earlier, while fixed asset investment fell 4.1% year on year.Meanwhile, industrial production rose 4.5% year on year."The lack of investment appetite is one of the factors impacting markets, translating into low borrowing demand and, consequently, banks parking more funds in government bonds," Lynn Song, ING's chief economist for Greater China, said in a June 16 note. "Policymakers have expressed an intention to stabilize investment this year. It looks like they have their work cut out."

Shanghai Composite^SZSE
Malaysia Trade Balance Grows in May as Exports Reach Record High
US Markets

Malaysia Trade Balance Grows in May as Exports Reach Record High

Malaysia's trade balance expanded in May on record-high exports, according to data from the Department of Statistics Malaysia released Friday.The country's trade surplus grew to 40.4 billion ringgit during the month, up from 29.2 billion ringgit in the previous month. It also beat the consensus estimate of 23.2 billion ringgit tracked by Investing.com.Exports surged 45.3% to 184 billion ringgit in May, faster than the 16.4% rise in April to 183.3 billion ringgit.Domestic exports jumping 42% to 143.1 billion ringgit, or 77.8% of total exports, while re-exports grew 58.4% to 40.9 billion ringgit, comprising 22.2% of total exports.By commodity, exports of electrical and electronic items worth 37.9 billion ringgit, other items worth 10.3 billion ringgit, petroleum products worth 6 billion ringgit, and liquefied natural gas, among others, helped prop up outward shipments, Chief Statistician Mohd Uzir Mahidin said.By destination, exports to the U.S. were the highest at 18.3 billion ringgit, while shipments southward to Singapore reached 7.4 billion ringgit, and toward Hong Kong at 6.8 billion ringgit.Import performance improved 14.1% to 143.6 billion ringgit.Imports by end use increased year over year, with an increase in intermediate goods of 14.4% to 74.5 billion ringgit.Capital goods imports slid 18.3% to 18.5 billion ringgit, and consumption items slipped 2.7% to 9.8 billion ringgit.Total trade jumped 29.8% year over year to 327.6 billion ringgit, slower than the 337.3 billion ringgit seen in April.

FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI
Weather, Promos Drive UK Retail Sales Beat in May
US Markets

Weather, Promos Drive UK Retail Sales Beat in May

UK retail sales beat consensus estimates in May, fueled by warm weather and promotions, according to data from the Office for National Statistics published Friday.Britain's retail sector saw its monthly sales grow 1.2%, above an expected 0.5% gain and following a revised 1% slump a month ago. Retail sales were up 3.2% annually, compared with the previous month's revised 0.1% uptick and the 1.9% increase expected by the market.UK retail sales volumes ticked up 0.4% in the three months to May compared with the three months ending in February, and rose 1.4% against the same three-month period a year ago.Excluding fuel, core UK retail sales increased by 1.2% month-on-month and 4.6% on an annual basis, surpassing market forecasts of 0.4% and 3.3% growth, respectively. The performance also represents an increase from April's data, which showed a revised 0.1% monthly contraction and a 1.1% annual gain."Feedback from retailers suggested the hot weather in May helped sales of items such as fans and paddling pools," ONS senior statistician Jon Gough said. "Computers and telecom stores continued to do well following product launches in March, while online retailers also performed strongly, with feedback suggesting that this was helped by promotions. These were only slightly offset by a small fall in food sales."The ONS also noted that department stores' sales volumes climbed 2.7%, driven by "strong" monthly gains in May 2026. The figure marked the biggest three-month growth since September 2024.

FTSE 100