China's crude imports slid to 6.7 million barrels per day in May, and ample inventories could keep purchases muted through the coming months, according to a Bloomberg analysis on Friday.
Instead of securing additional cargoes, Chinese refiners relied on stored supplies as refinery runs were cut and softer fuel demand reduced import needs. China imported about 10.4 million b/d on average during 2025.
Since the conflict began, China's strategic petroleum reserves have increased by about 8 million barrels, while refinery inventories have declined by roughly 15 million barrels in May, the analysis added, citing Kpler estimates.
By stepping back from the crude market, China helped ease concerns over supply disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz, limiting upward pressure on global oil prices.
"Sizable domestic inventories mean lower import volumes should be sustainable over the coming months," ING's head of commodities, Warren Patterson, said.
Patterson added that uncertainty about the conflict's duration suggests China's pullback "may be more temporary."
To shield consumers from higher energy costs, Beijing initially restricted fuel exports and encouraged independent refiners to keep production near last year's levels. Refiners later reduced output as margins weakened and uncertainty in crude supply increased, the analysis said.
The growing use of alternative energy sources has further weakened fuel demand. Retail fuel prices increased 17% over the year during March and April, while fuel sales volumes dropped 17% as electric vehicles and other transport alternatives gained traction, the analysis said, citing Lisheng Wang at Goldman Sachs.
Refinery throughput fell in April to its lowest level since August 2022, as China reduced processing activity instead of making larger releases from its strategic crude reserves, according to the analysis.
Kpler and Energy Aspects expect refinery runs to remain near 13 million b/d in May and June, down from 14.8 million b/d last year and close to levels seen in the early stages of the 2020 pandemic.
China Petrochemical Group and private refiners are leading the run cuts, with independent processors expected to reduce throughput by another 200,000 b/d in June, the analysis said, citing Energy Aspects.
Energy Aspects analyst Jianan Sun said refinery throughput is unlikely to fall below 12 million b/d because energy security concerns should eventually support higher crude imports.