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Chevron Poised to Beat Second-Quarter Profit Estimates on Surging Crude Revenue, UBS Says

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Chevron Poised to Beat Second-Quarter Profit Estimates on Surging Crude Revenue, UBS Says

Chevron (CVX) is poised to post second-quarter earnings above Wall Street's expectations on stronger crude prices and improved refining margins, UBS Securities said in a note.

UBS lifted its Q2 earnings-per-share estimate to $5.70 from $3.82, ahead of the $5.02 consensus. It also raised its 2026 EPS estimate to $13.22 from $10.76 and lowered its 2027 forecast to $11.27 from $11.46. The consensus is $14.21 for this year and $12.55 for next.

"Higher crude price realizations, better refining margins and higher ethylene chain margins" drove the upward revisions, and cash flow from operations before working capital is expected to reach about $18.5 billion, with a $2.3 billion working-capital tailwind, UBS said.

Upstream earnings are expected to rise to $7.6 billion from $4.14 billion in the first quarter, supported by higher volumes from Kazakhstan, Australia, and the Middle East, along with higher prices, the note said.

Downstream earnings may reach $4.5 billion, compared with a loss of $465 million in the first quarter, on higher international and US refining margins, the note said. "We expect higher ethylene chain margins to be a $275 million and $325 million earnings tailwind sequentially," UBS said.

Last month, Chevron subsidiary Energy Forge One agreed to build a power plant in West Texas to supply electricity to a data center operated by Microsoft (MSFT). The facility will deliver about 2.67 gigawatts of capacity under a 20-year power purchase deal.

UBS reiterated its buy rating on Chevron's stock with a $220 price target.

Chevron's shares fell 1% in Thursday trading. They have gained 14% this year.

Price: $174.25, Change: $-1.72, Percent Change: -0.98%

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