Casey's General Stores (CASY) fiscal Q1 results showed effective execution amid an uneven macro environment, but the performance may not be enough against investor expectations, UBS Securities said in a note emailed Wednesday.
The company's prepared foods comparable sales growth of 4.8% was led by positive traffic and strength in whole pizzas, showing the resiliency of food offering as consumers look for value, according to the note.
Casey's added scale and vertical integration in fuel helped it benefit from a volatile price environment to capture additional profit, the note added.
For fiscal 2027, the company expects earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization growth of 8% to 10%, versus pre-print UBS estimate of 9.3% and Street consensus of 10.6%. Casey's forecasts inside same-store-sales growth of 2% to 5%, compared with pre-print UBS estimate of 3.6% and consensus of 3.8%, and an inside margin of over 42%, versus pre-print UBS estimate of 42.3% and consensus of 42.4%, the note said.
Casey's forecasts at least 120 new stores in fiscal 2027 via new construction and mergers and acquisition activity, the brokerage said.
UBS kept its neutral rating on Casey's General Stores with a price target of $925.
Shares of Casey's General Stores were down about 15% in Wednesday trading.
Price: $625.21, Change: $-108.28, Percent Change: -14.76%