Carvana's (CVNA) latest securitization of finance receivables looks "slightly less" favorable quarter-on-quarter, RBC Capital Markets said in a note Thursday.
The investment firm lowered its other gross profit per unit, or GPU, estimates by 2.1%, 2.5%, 1.5% for Q2, Q3, and Q4, and by 1.2% for 2027. Relative to Q1, APRs in the mid-May deal declined by 13 basis points, with excess spread down 66 basis points and the over-collateralization target up 50 basis points, all working against gain on sale, RBC added.
Offsets that the firm is factoring in include Carvana's hedging program, lengthening prime loan durations, higher retail unit volumes quarter-on-quarter and slightly higher average selling price, according to the note.
Additionally, the firm said it updated its retail unit cohort model gauging expectations on market share gains for Carvana as Street's 2026 and 2027 estimates appear a bit more aggressive than prior years.
RBC lowered its price target to $85 from $92 and maintained its outperform rating on the stock.
Carvana shares were down 4.9% in Friday trading.
Price: $64.48, Change: $-3.34, Percent Change: -4.92%