Railroad companies Canadian National Railway (CNI), CSX (CSX), and Union Pacific (UNP) are well-positioned to beat second-quarter earnings expectations amid strong volume trends, RBC Capital Markets said Wednesday in a report.
Canadian National's year-to-date volumes are trending up 3.6%, setting the stage for a projected second-quarter profit of $1.95 a share, the report said. Union Pacific's profit is expected to be $3.28 a share, and CSX is projected to earn $0.51 a share, RBC said.
"Overall, we see Canadian National, CSX, and Union Pacific as delivering the best earnings upside versus consensus given strong volume trends," the report said.
RBC had a more cautious tone on Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CP) and predicted a "near-term neutral reaction" as a mix of strong operating metrics and stable volumes may be offset by recent derailments and rising share-based compensation costs.
CSX will report results on July 22, followed by Canadian National Railway on July 24.
RBC raised its price targets to $195 from $178 for Canadian National, to $139 from $127 for Canadian Pacific, and to $51 from $47 on CSX "due to indications the freight backdrop is improving."
RBC lowered its price target for Norfolk Southern (NSC) after applying a 10% discount due to higher deal-related risk, noting that it continues "to see quarterly results as less impactful to sentiment given the proposed merger with Union Pacific."
Last year, Union Pacific agreed to acquire Norfolk Southern in a cash-and-stock deal valuing the smaller railroad operator at about $85 billion. The deal faces regulatory headwinds after the US Surface Transportation Board paused review of the deal in late May, giving the companies until July 27 to provide more comprehensive traffic and market-competition data.
Price: $116.07, Change: $+1.17, Percent Change: +1.02%



