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Canada's Q1 Growth Weakness Prompts UBS to Lower Its 2026 Growth Forecast to 1.0%

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Canada's Q1 growth weakness prompted UBS to lower its 2026 growth forecast to 1.0%, although the headline technical recession overstates the degree of underlying softness given volatile trade and inventory swings, the bank said in a note dated June 1, 2026.

Final domestic demand has weakened, with softer investment offsetting still resilient consumption, while labour market momentum remains subdued and core inflation has cooled by more than expected despite an energy-led lift in headline prices, UBS said. Against this backdrop, UBS expects the Bank of Canada to remain on hold through 2026, with a firmer and broader-based recovery more likely to emerge in 2027 as uncertainty around trade negotiations gradually clears, it added.

According to UBS, the Canadian economy entered a technical recession, with output falling for two consecutive quarters: -1.0% in Q4 and -0.2% in Q1, at an annualised rate. "Even so," it said, "the headline figures overstate the degree of underlying weakness. Volatile trade and inventory movements played a large role, while slower private and public investment left final domestic demand softer."

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