This year's round of provincial budgets in Canada revealed an aggregate deficit of around 1.4% of gross domestic product for FY 2026/27, a deterioration from last year, but modest by historical standards, said TD.
The all-province net debt-to-GDP ratio is set to climb further, wrote the bank in a note to clients.
Recent energy price gains have tilted near-term fiscal risks towards improved budget positions, particularly for commodity-producing provinces, stated TD.
Capital spending remains a central pillar of fiscal plans, providing near-term support to growth but adding to medium-term debt and debt-servicing pressures across most jurisdictions, stated the bank.
New policy initiatives were deliberately limited, with a focus on affordability, housing, and core services. To some extent, targeted support will help firm domestic activity, potentially offsetting downside risks to real growth from external shocks, added TD.
Provincial budgets this season reflect tighter fiscal room, with most governments opting for incremental, targeted measures over large new commitments, according to the bank. Deficits are expected to linger over the next several years, although the oil price shock has tilted this calculus in favor of commodity provinces while complicating the outlook for energy importers, where lingering deficits and elevated debt burdens make fiscal positions more vulnerable to negative economic shocks.