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Canada's Long Provincial Bonds Posted Positive Returns in May, says BMO

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Canadian long provincials posted positive returns in May, said Bank of Montreal (BMO).

That came mostly on the back of a late-May rally in long Government of Canada (GoC) bond yields, while provincial spreads were little changed, wrote the bank in its "Provincial Credit Watch" note published on Monday.

Optimism over a United States-Iran deal pulled down oil prices in the final week of May, and long GoC yields followed, said BMO.

Meantime, BMO continues to see the Bank of Canada on hold through 2026, with underlying core inflation near 2% and growth running below potential. From a year ago, long provincials continue to outperform GoCs alongside tighter spreads, it noted.

Spread performance was mixed over the past month, with most of the fiscal news now baked in following the 2026 budget season, said the bank. From a year ago, the oil-producing provinces (Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland & Labrador) have outperformed alongside the jump in crude prices, while British Columbia has lagged amid tough budget conditions and credit-rating action, it added.

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