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Canada's Labor Market Reports Diverging Show 'Complex' Job Market, BMO Says

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Divergences in Canada's labor market reports from the country's statistics agency were "surprising" and a reminder that one piece of data won't always capture the "complex" job market, Bank of Montreal Capital Markets said.

Statistics Canada's Survey of Employment, Payrolls, and Hours showed jobs rose by 22,000 in April, while the Labour Force Survey posted an 18,000 decline for the same month, Senior Economist Shelly Kaushik wrote in a note after Thursday's SEPH data.

This is "a good reminder that no one statistic or report can fully capture something as complex as the job market," she said.

The divergence reflects structural differences as the SEPH counts payroll jobs excluding self-employment, while the LFS counts individuals and includes self-employed workers, according to the bank.

The LFS counts individuals with multiple jobs as a single worker and includes those on unpaid leave, such as on holiday or in industrial action, as employed, unlike SEPH.

"Differences will persist between the two surveys," said Kaushik, adding that growth in gig work, holding multiple jobs, and labor disruptions can increase the gap. Also, data revisions can change the overall picture, she added.

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