The Canadian labor market added 75,000 jobs in July, the third straight monthly increase, and economists expect this trend to continue to the end of the year even as trade uncertainty with the US persists.
"Overall, this was a strong report and another sign that Canada's economy is turning the corner. These numbers were surveyed before the latest tariff announcement but even if those tariffs do stick, they will not derail Canada's momentum," wrote KPMG chief economist Ali Jaffery in a note. "The section 338 tariffs are wide but not deep (hitting less than 1% of GDP)."
The 75,000 increase caused the unemployment rate to fall to 6.4%, the lowest level in two years, according to Statistics Canada's Labour Force Survey that was released Friday. Job growth was split between full- and part-time roles, and led by wholesale and retail, finance, professional services and construction.
While KPMG's Jaffery expects August job numbers to show some temporary weakness, he pointed out that underlying inflation pressures were still muted, partly due to the soft housing market and subdued wage growth.
Overall, economists appeared to agree that the Canadian labor market is not yet strong: CIBC's Senior Economist Andrew Grantham pointed out that at 6.4%, the unemployment rate was still half a percent higher than where he estimated full employment lies, so it's not likely to fuel inflation. Grantham saw the Bank of Canada remaining on hold this year and into the start of 2027.
The optics of the robust Canadian jobs figures, landing on the same day as a soft US payroll result, was "stark", BMO Chief Economist Douglas Porter noted, but added the reading "likely exaggerates the underlying strength in the [Canadian] economy" where job growth was under 1% year over year, and gross domestic product growth was still under 2% over the same period.