Once a quarter, as part of the broader set of national accounts, Statistics Canada serves up a fresh batch of 'Securities Statistics' data, said National Bank of Canada.
This particular release often goes under the radar, as was the case with the latest data drop earlier this week, related to Q1, noted the bank.
There's some" important stuff" in the data, stated National Bank.
Net bond issuance by all Canadian entities remains "lofty" in absolute, relative and seasonally adjusted terms, pointed out the bank. Canada's marginal borrowing is coming mainly from the government side, particularly when isolating for Canadian dollar (CAD or loonie) issuance.
The domestic bond market is increasingly government-centric, with governments accounting for a record share of outstandings, it added. Within government, debt is accumulating more quickly at the federal level.
Provincial funding needs are "non-trivial." However, provinces have steered a record amount of net supply to international markets, taking advantage of strong international investor demand.
That's driven the CAD share of outstanding provincial bonds lower, according to National Bank. The current balance of CAD supply -- provincial versus federal -- is consistent with tight credit spreads.
The bank's bond supply outlook for 2027 would remain technically supportive for provincial government spreads, all else equal.