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California LCFS Market Staying in Deficit Through Q1 2026, TPH Says

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California's Low Carbon Fuel Standard market remained in deficit in Q4 2025 and will likely stay undersupplied in Q1 2026 as renewable diesel supply weakens and compliance targets tighten, TPH Energy Research strategists said in a Wednesday note.

The California LCFS market remained in deficit for a second straight quarter in Q4 2025, with the credit-deficit spread at negative 1.9 million metric tons versus negative 1.7 mmt in Q3.

The report said the credit bank declined to 379 days of demand in Q4 from 380 days in Q3 and was sharply below 636 days in Q2.

Deficit generation eased 4% over the quarter to 9.6 mmt in Q4 as gasoline deficits declined 2% to 8.4 mmt on weaker seasonal demand patterns, TPH said.

Petroleum diesel deficits dropped 18% over the quarter to 900,000 mt as renewable diesel blending increased and total diesel demand fell 8% both sequentially and over the year, according to the report.

TPH said total credit supply declined 7% over the quarter to 7.8 mmt, largely due to a 400,000 mt decline in administratively adjusted credits.

Sustainable aviation fuel credits climbed 30% to 200,000 mt on 33 million gallons of consumption, which TPH estimated represented roughly 3% of California jet fuel demand.

TPH said renewable diesel credit generation slipped 1% over the quarter to 2.5 mmt in Q4 as volumes declined 2% to 530 million gallons.

The report said California's renewable diesel blend rate rose to 62% from 58% despite higher soybean and canola feedstock usage, which increased to 40% from 33%.

Electricity credits increased 2% to 2.5 mmt in Q4, while renewable natural gas credits fell 8% to 2 mmt as lower dairy RNG usage weakened carbon intensity scores, TPH said.

TPH said California's Low Carbon Fuel Standard market will likely remain in deficit in Q1 2026, with the credit-deficit spread projected at negative 1.8 mmt.

TPH expects renewable diesel supply into California to weaken after US renewable diesel utilization dropped to 54% in Q1 from 67% in Q4, according to the report.

The firm estimated US renewable diesel production plus net imports at 550 million gallons in Q1, down from 705 million gallons in Q4, according to the report.

TPH also forecasts California renewable diesel volumes will decline to 474 million gallons in Q1 from 530 million gallons in Q4, reducing credit generation.

The report said rising vegetable oil usage will slightly worsen carbon intensity scores and lower renewable diesel credits by about 300,000 mt in Q1.

California's LCFS program will tighten its 2026 compliance benchmark to negative 24.20% from negative 22.75% in the second half of 2025 and negative 13.75% in the first half of 2025, TPH said.

TPH estimated that the tougher compliance target will reduce market supply-demand balances by roughly 1 mmt, although electricity and sustainable aviation fuel credits may partly offset the decline.

The firm forecast the inventory bank will fall to 353 days of supply in Q1 and said higher LCFS prices near $66 per metric ton versus $55/mt at the start of the year should benefit Buy-rated Clean Energy Fuels (CLNE) and Darling Ingredients (DAR).

Price: $1.99, Change: $-0.01, Percent Change: -0.35%

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