Brown-Forman (BF.A, BF.B) enters fiscal 2027 with a well-supported guidance that is expected to shake off prior geographic drags and benefit from a sustained product momentum, BofA Securities said Monday.
Last week, the wine and spirits maker said it expected fiscal 2027 organic sales to be roughly flat after closing out last year unchanged too. "We anticipate the operating environment for fiscal 2027 to remain challenging," the parent of Jack Daniel's whiskey said at the time.
The company's fiscal fourth-quarter earnings unexpectedly fell on an annual basis. It expects full-year organic operating income to drop by 3% to 5%, compared with a 2% decrease in fiscal 2026.
"We view (fiscal 2027) guidance as well underpinned, reducing the risk of further earnings downgrades," BofA analyst Andrea Pistacchi said in a note to clients Monday. "Top-line is supported by strength in (emerging markets notably Brazil, Mexico, Turkiye) and continued outperformance in the US," Pistacchi said, adding that the new year is no longer expected to face a drag from Canada and the non-branded category.
The brokerage upgraded its rating on the Brown-Forman stock to neutral from underperform and raised its price objective to $28 from $26.50.
"Why not more positive?," Pistacchi said. "Top-line growth remains modest (broadly flat), and below other staples, and uncertainty on the pace of recovery in the US."
Shipments are expected to lag depletions slightly in the US this year, though the company is likely to continue to outperform the spirits market, BofA said.
"Management appears confident that Blackberry can sustain momentum as it laps the launch comps from August, while New Mix (ready-to-drink) has started strongly and is contributing meaningfully to US growth," Pistacchi said. "We also expect the strong momentum in emerging to continue."
The company's balance sheet is strong, while its cash conversion in improving, according to the note. BofA expects "more consistent and potentially accelerating" buybacks, supporting Brown-Forman's earnings growth through 2029.
In late April, Brown-Forman and French beverages firm Pernod Ricard said they terminated discussions regarding a potential business combination, as they were unable to reach "mutually agreeable" terms.



