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Payrolls Data Signals Further Sign of A Very Weak Labor Market in Canada, Says Rosenberg Research

Canada was on the receiving end of some "very disappointing" industry employment (SEPH) data on Thursday, with it showing a 31,800 job pullback in March on top of a 38,100 contraction the prior month, said Rosenberg Research.The year-over-year trend is flat, noted Rosenberg Research. "There was "no pulse at all" in the workweek, and virtually none in nominal wages for hourly employees."If it wasn't for a 4,300 spike in public sector payrolls and a 1,900 expansion in non-cyclical health & education, the headline decline would have been closer to minus 40,000 -- a number Rosenberg hasn't seen since late 2023.The fact that the most interest-sensitive sectors are "taking it on the chin the most" (construction -4,100 after a like-sized decline in February; -1,90 in the real estate sector for the worst showing since last September; and a "whopping" -3,600 slump in retail, the third straight "drubbing") should serve as a warning to the Bank of Canada to go light on its hawkish rhetoric, said Rosenberg.In a further sign of "uber-weak" labor demand, the job vacancy rate remained stuck at 2.8% for the fourth month in a row, not just scaling the low end of the cyclical range but back to where it was in the fall of 2017 when the BoC was pinning the policy rate at 1.0%, noted Rosenberg.