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Oil & Energy
Trump Says Iran Wants Deal, Talks May Resume Over Weekend
US President Donald Trump said Thursday Iran "wants to make a deal," signaling potential progress in negotiations between the two countries.Trump shared the remarks while speaking to reporters outside the White House, shortly after posting on Truth Social about the 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon.He said talks between Lebanon and Israel could mark a breakthrough, noting they may meet "for the first time in 44 years... and they're probably going to do it at the White House over the next week or two."Trump said further talks between the US and Iran could happen soon, noting negotiations may take place "probably maybe over the weekend" as discussions continue. "...I think we're very close to making a deal with Iran... I think we have a chance," the President said.He added that Iran's stance has shifted. "Iran wants to make a deal, and we're dealing very nicely with them... And they're willing to do things today that they weren't willing to do two months ago," he said.He added that negotiations were very successful, "I think we have a very successful negotiation going on right now, and I think if it happens, it'll be announced fairly soon, and it will give us free oil and free Hormuz Strait. Everything will be nice and I think your oil price will go down lower than it was before."Answering a question on the 20-year limit for uranium enrichment, Trump said no limits have been finalized, stating "we haven't agreed to any point... there's no 20 year limit," while emphasizing nuclear restrictions remain central.Trump said Iran has made commitments, adding "Iran's agreed to that, and they've agreed to it very powerfully," referring to nuclear-related assurances.He credited US military pressure and naval actions, saying "it's a combination of about four weeks of bombing and a very powerful blockade," which he said strengthened leverage.Trump described the current US maritime blockade's effectiveness, saying, "the blockade is maybe more powerful than the bombing."On Hormuz, he said conditions are tightly controlled, with strict enforcement as no ships are entering or going past the Strait. "They're not doing any business. They're unable to do any business because of the blockade," Trump said.Trump said US gasoline prices have eased in recent days, adding "Well, they're not very high, if you look at what they were supposed to be in order to get rid of a nuclear weapon... gas prices have come down very much over the last three, four days."On high oil prices, Trump said prices were likely to ease with a deal announced soon. "If you look at the oil and you look at the price we're paying, it's about half what people thought it would be if you did what I had to do."Arab nations are expected to help cover war costs, Trump said, adding "I think they're going to make a contribution."
Oil & Energy
US Oil Update: Crude Rise as US-Iran Talks Uncertainty, Hormuz Blockade Fuel Supply Fears
Crude oil futures rose in after-hours trading on Thursday as uncertainty surrounding the second round of US-Iran peace talks and a prolonged disruption to shipping via the Strait of Hormuz stoked concerns over global supply.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures climbed 2.08% to $93.19 per barrel, while Brent futures gained 3.57% to $98.32/bbl.On Thursday, President Donald Trump struck an optimistic tone about prospects for the US and Iran to sign a permanent ceasefire deal, as the two sides discuss an extended truce ahead of its expiration next week.Trump said without providing evidence that Tehran has agreed to give up the enriched uranium."It's looking very good that we're going to make a deal with Iran, and it's going to be a good deal," Trump told reporters at the White House on Thursday.However, Iranian officials are reportedly skeptical about the US' commitment to fair negotiations, casting doubt on the prospects for a new round of talks despite reports of a possible meeting this weekend.Tehran believes that, due to Washington's alleged breach of commitments at the outset of the peace talks and its continued conduct to date, a potential next round of talks is unlikely to yield results, according to Iran's semi-official Tasnim News Agency.The two sides are reportedly considering returning to Pakistan for further talks as early as the coming weekend.Ole R. Hvalbye, commodities analyst at SEB Research, said the situation is fast-moving, while maintaining SEB's base case that Brent will average $95/bbl for 2026 and $85/bbl and $80/bbl in 2027 and 2028, respectively.Meanwhile, the Middle East conflict has caused unprecedented disruption to global energy markets amid the double blockade of the Hormuz, a strategic waterway that typically carries about 20% of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas flows.ING analysts said that as buyers shift toward US barrels, the domestic market is set to tighten as long as Middle East disruptions persist, likely prompting a supply response from US producers.However, the analysts said that the local drilling activity has barely moved since the start of the conflict, which has disrupted about 13 million barrels per day.The US Central Command has imposed a blockade to cut off Iranian traffic, while Tehran keeps the strategic waterway closed to most other ships. Kpler strategists said vessel traffic via the Hormuz has increased from last month's unusually low levels, with crossings rising and activity extending across a broader mix of vessel types and cargoes.
Oil & Energy
US Diesel Rail Shipments Surge as Iran Conflict Spurs Arbitrage, Bloomberg Analysis Says
US demand for rail-delivered shipping diesel surged in March as the conflict in Iran disrupted global fuel flows, prompting traders to seek alternative routes and storage options, a Bloomberg analysis showed on Thursday.Requests for distillate storage in tanks connected to rail networks jumped sharply to 250,000 barrels in March, up from 30,000 in February and none in January, Bloomberg said, citing data from storage clearinghouse The Tank Tiger. All the demand came from the East and Gulf Coasts, key export hubs. Early April figures indicate the trend is continuing, with an additional 125,000 barrels in storage requests already recorded.The spike in rail-linked storage demand points to a growing effort by traders and refiners to capitalize on arbitrage opportunities. With Midwest diesel prices trading at a steep discount to coastal markets, firms are increasingly moving fuel to export hubs where tighter supplies have lifted prices.The shift comes as conflict in the Middle East, including disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, constrains global supplies of crude and refined products. In response, international demand for US diesel has strengthened, with exports expected to approach record levels, Bloomberg said, citing information from energy analytics firm Vortexa.While pipelines remain the primary method for transporting fuel domestically, capacity and routing limitations mean they cannot always deliver Midwest product directly to coastal export terminals. Rail and barge shipments, though typically more expensive, are becoming economically viable under current market conditions.Rail deliveries of petroleum products totaled 9,112 carloads in March, nearly 10% higher than a year earlier, underscoring the shift in logistics.Declining inventories along the Gulf Coast and stronger overseas demand have tightened regional markets, occasionally pushing physical diesel prices above futures benchmarks, an uncommon development for a region usually characterized by ample supply.Bloomberg said industry analysts predict the longer disruptions persist in the Middle East, the more likely it is that these atypical trade patterns, particularly the use of rail to move fuel to coastal export hubs, will continue.