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BP's Clair, ETAP and Schiehallion Assets Anchor North Sea Portfolio, Wood Mackenzie Says

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BP's planned exit from the North Sea could attract buyers for its UK oil and gas assets, but the portfolio comes with significant investment needs, decommissioning costs, and tax uncertainty, Wood Mackenzie said in a note on Friday.

The energy consultancy values BP's UK upstream portfolio at about $2.6 billion. The assets include 18 producing fields across five North Sea hubs, with combined production of nearly 100,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day.

Three of the producing assets, Clair, ETAP and Schiehallion, account for most of the portfolio's value. Clair alone accounts for about 49% and could support further production growth, although its complex reservoir makes development challenging.

Wood Mackenzie's valuation assumes a long-term oil price of $70 a barrel. The value could fall 8% to $2.42 billion if BP's proposed Clair Ridge Expansion does not proceed.

UK tax policy is another major factor. Extending the Energy Profits Levy through March 2034 would cut the portfolio's value to about $2.31 billion, according to Wood Mackenzie, while ending the levy in March 2027 would increase it to $3.52 billion.

Decommissioning liabilities could also weigh heavily on a deal. Wood Mackenzie estimates the assets are worth $1.6 billion if a buyer assumes BP's full decommissioning responsibilities, which total about $6.4 billion. Foinaven, west of Shetland, is expected to account for much of the near-term spending.

Potential buyers will also need substantial capital to develop the assets. Wood Mackenzie estimates the Clair Ridge Expansion could recover about 205 million barrels of oil equivalent but require roughly $5.6 billion in capital spending.

Established North Sea operators are considered the most likely buyers because of their technical expertise and ability to manage the region's harsh operating conditions and regulatory risks.

BP could consider flexible deal structures, including deferred payments or future cash-flow sharing, to bridge differences between its valuation expectations and what buyers are willing to pay, Wood Mackenzie said.

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