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BMO on The Day Ahead in Canada

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Canada is scheduled to release the Labour Force Survey (LFS) for May at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday, said Bank of Montreal (BMO).

The labor market remains on a softening path and the May LFS will continue that trend, noted the bank.

Although BMO expects a rebound in employment, the bank's call for 8,000 net new jobs will offset less than half of the previous month's decline. Economic uncertainty continues to restrain hiring, while tariffs are driving outright layoffs in certain sectors.

Meantime, the unemployment rate is expected to stay at 6.9% as the labor force has stagnated amid a declining population and underlying demographic aging, pointed out BMO. Overall, the labor market will struggle to gain momentum until Canada gets some clarity on the trade front, and/or long-awaited infrastructure projects materialize.

Also, on the Canadian docket at 10 a.m. ET Friday, the Ivey PMI for May is due, added the bank. In April, it was 57.7, a seven-month high.

The US dollar (USD) is weaker (BBDXY -0.20%), with the Canadian dollar (CAD or loonie) stronger (CAD per USD -0.25%) ahead of the LFS and the United States nonfarm payrolls (NFP) on Friday, according to BMO.

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