Canada will release the current account balance for Q1 at 8:30 a.m. ET on Thursday, said Bank of Montreal (BMO).
The late-February outbreak of the Iran war drove prices for key Canadian exports, especially energy, higher, noted the bank. The merchandise trade deficit flipped to surplus in March and looks to continue benefiting as long as activity through the Strait of Hormuz remains restricted.
Still, the Q1 shortfall likely widened due to softness in earlier months. Meantime, the services account posted a small deficit following a surplus in the previous quarter.
Consequently, BMO expects the current account shortfall to deteriorate to $2.5 billion, or $9.9 billion a.r., in Q1. That would weigh in at a modest 0.3% of gross domestic product, with the latter figure to be released on Friday.
Also, investors will get the March data on payroll employment, earnings and hours (SPH), along with job vacancies at 8:30 a.m. ET on Thursday. The growth in payrolls has been steadily slower than the Labour Force Survey's (LFS) employment growth since mid-2023, added the bank. Meanwhile, the vacancy rate was 2.8% in February for the third month in a row.
Then at 10 a.m. ET, the Bank of Canada will release the annual Financial Stability Report, followed by a press conference with Governor Tiff Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers at 11 a.m. ET.
The US dollar (USD) is firmer (BBDXY +0.18%), with the Canadian dollar (CAD or loonie) softer (CAD per USD +0.21%), added BMO.