The Chicago soybean complex eased on Tuesday as crude oil prices softened, but Malaysian palm oil diverged, posting gains as robust exports lent support.
The September soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade slipped 0.17% to $11.60 per bushel in early trade. The September CBOT soybean oil contract fell 0.55% to 69.15 cents per pound.
Forecasts for widespread rainfall across most parts of the US Midwest, supporting soybean pod-filling stage and improving yield prospects, also provided some price downside.
The US Department of Agriculture said 62% of the soybean crop was in good-to-excellent condition in the week ended Aug. 9. This is below the previous week's 63% and the prior year's 68%.
A week-over-week increase in export inspections offered some price support. The USDA reported that 399,201 metric tons of soybeans were inspected for export in the week ended Aug. 6, a rise from the previous week's 347,246 mt but a decline from last year's 544,344 mt.
For the current marketing year through Aug. 6, soybean export inspections totaled 39.8 million metric tons, down from the previous season's 48.4 mmt.
China has emerged as a key destination for US soybeans, with cargo arrivals exceeding 10 mmt in July and August, according to market intelligence provider SunSirs.
"Port soybean inventories are at a ten-year high for this period," SunSirs said.
At major domestic crush plants in China, soybean inventories in the 32nd week of 2026 rose 6% week over week and 12.4% year over year to around 8.0 mmt, data from price reporting agency MySteel showed.
China's state-owned enterprise Sinograin will reportedly put another 516,000 mt of soybeans up for auction on Aug. 12, the third such move in recent weeks, to free up storage for arriving US cargoes.
The market is now awaiting the USDA's supply and demand estimates report, due on Aug. 12.
In Asia, Malaysian palm oil futures extended gains on Tuesday, despite lower crude oil and soybean oil prices, as export demand continued to grow.
The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives' September crude palm oil contract closed higher by 0.37% to 4,648 Malaysian ringgit ($1,136.24) per metric ton. The October contract was up 0.53% to 4,748 ringgit/mt.
Cargo surveyors reportedly estimated Malaysian shipments in the Aug. 1-10 period to have risen between 2.6% and 14.8% from a month earlier. This followed month-over-month increases in June and July of 7.2% and 14.5%, respectively.
Exports to the EU, India, and the Middle East remained strong last month, but shipments to China and the US softened, according to Public Investment Bank, as cited by the New Straits Times.
Palm oil price gains were capped as domestic inventories reached a five-month high of 2.6 mmt last month. Higher production and weaker domestic demand have offset export growth, according to TA Securities, as cited by The Edge Malaysia.
The firm reportedly noted that, year over year, stocks rose 24.3% as exports grew 4.8%. Production, domestic consumption, and imports, on the other hand, fell 1.1%, 19.5%, and 6.9%, respectively.
RHB Research reportedly projects Malaysian inventories to remain above 2 mmt this year, as the potential supply impact of the El Nino weather phenomenon will likely materialize toward year-end through 2027.
In Indonesia, stocks could deplete 28% year over year to 3.1 mmt as a higher biodiesel blending of 50% progresses, according to Public Investment Bank.
Analysts expect weather-related supply risks and expanding biofuel policies to support palm oil prices going forward, with CIMB Securities reportedly revising its 2026 and 2027 price outlook upward by 50 ringgit/mt to 4,450 ringgit/mt and 4,550 ringgit/mt, respectively.
This week, "crude palm oil futures are expected to trade with a neutral-to-mildly bullish bias," but "elevated Malaysian stocks and rising production may limit the upside," financial services firm Phillip Capital said.
Meanwhile, September ethanol prices on the NYMEX steadied on Monday at $1.97 per gallon.