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Biofuels Update: Soybean Complex Mixed Ahead of Key Data; Palm Oil Down

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The Chicago soybean complex was mixed on Wednesday ahead of the US Department of Agriculture's supply and demand report, while Malaysian palm oil was lower amid profit-taking.

The September soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade rose 0.43% to $11.56 per bushel in early trade. The September CBOT soybean oil contract fell 0.09% to 68.51 cents per pound, extending the previous session's losses.

The market is awaiting the latest supply and demand estimates from the USDA for guidance.

The agency reported that 62% of the soybean crop was in good-to-excellent condition in the week ended Aug. 9, down from the previous week's 63% and the prior year's 68%.

Current crop ratings indicate an average yield of 53.2 bushels per acre and a total production of 4.488 billion bushels, according to ADM Investor Services. This is slightly up compared with the USDA's current outlook for 4.475 billion bushels.

Rich Nelson of agricultural market researcher Allendale, as cited by AgWeb, projects a 2% to 3% increase in current yields due to an improved weather forecast in August.

Chinese buying supported the soybean complex, despite persistently high inventories in China. Trading activity will be influenced by the results of today's 516,000 metric ton auction by Sinograin to free up storage for arriving US cargoes.

In Brazil, soybean exports are estimated at 9.7 million metric tons in August, higher than the previous year's 8.1 mmt, the National Association of Grain Exporters, Anec, said.

In Asia, Malaysian palm oil futures declined on Wednesday as traders took profits after prices reached two-week highs in the previous session, and as a stronger local currency weighed on export competitiveness.

The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives' September crude palm oil contract closed lower by 1.25% at 4,590 Malaysian ringgit ($1,122.06) per metric ton. The October contract fell 1.07% to 4,697 ringgit/mt.

The Malaysian ringgit firmed against the US dollar by 0.16% on Wednesday, making shipments more expensive for foreign buyers. This could weigh on export competitiveness, following demand growth in the past few months.

Cargo surveyors reportedly estimated Malaysian shipments in the Aug. 1-10 period to have risen between 2.6% and 14.8% from a month earlier. Export growth continues following 7.2% and 14.5% month-over-month increases in June and July, respectively.

From January through June, Malaysian palm oil exports to major markets stood at about 9.1 million metric tons, data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board showed on Wednesday.

The volume is 9.5% higher than the 8.3 mmt exports recorded in the same period of 2025, primarily due to a surge in shipments to India, Kenya, and Turkey. Exports to the EU and the Philippines declined.

India's edible oil imports reached their highest level in 10 months in July as buyers scaled up purchases ahead of festivities, with dealers cited by Reuters estimating a 50% month-over-month jump in palm oil imports to 733,000 mt and a 32% growth in soybean imports to 501,000 mt.

In China, domestic demand for palm oil is under pressure due to cheaper soybean oil and limited purchases in the food sector, according to market intelligence provider SunSirs.

"The market is currently in the traditional off-season for edible oils; catering and food processing sectors are limiting purchases to essential needs, with little appetite for stockpiling," the firm said.

"Additionally, low soybean oil prices have led to significant substitution, squeezing palm oil's share of the edible consumption market; the widening price spread between soybean oil and palm oil is further dampening demand for the latter," it noted.

Ample supply availability also weighed on the market, as production and inventories remained high in producing regions.

The supply impact of the El Nino weather phenomenon is expected to largely materialize next year, supporting prices toward the end of this year through 2027.

Meanwhile, September ethanol prices on the NYMEX dropped 0.89% to around $1.95 per gallon on Tuesday.

The US Energy Information Administration projects that domestic ethanol output will average 1.10 million barrels per day this year, before increasing slightly to 1.11 mmbbls/d in 2027.

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