FINWIRES · TerminalLIVE
FINWIRES

Biofuels Update: Chicago Soybean Complex Up on China Tariff Talks; Palm Oil Steady to Higher

By

The Chicago soybean complex firmed on Friday amid talks of China possibly lowering tariffs on imports of US grains and oilseeds, offsetting pressures from a weaker crude oil market.

The July soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade rose by a further 0.44% to $11.99 per bushel in early trade, bringing weekly gains to almost 0.1%.

The July soybean oil contract reached new highs as it inched up 0.77% to 77.29 cents per pound. The contract was set for a five-session rally and a weekly gain of more than 4%. It has been rising since January due to expanding biofuel demand, and was on track to rise 3.5% this May.

On Friday, rumors that China may lower import tariffs, potentially enabling higher purchases of US farm goods, supported the entire soybean complex, according to ADM Investor Services and Water Street Solutions.

Chicago futures rose despite China's purchases of cheaper Brazilian soybeans, which totaled four cargoes overnight, ADM said.

Brazilian and Argentine cargoes are currently offered at discounts of $400 to $450 per metric ton versus US cargoes, according to agricultural trading firm GrainTrade.

Brazil's soybean exports have reached their highest in almost two decades, with shipments from January through April rising 47% year over year, largely due to a record crop and weak domestic demand, Oils & Fats International reported.

In Asia, Malaysian palm oil futures were steady to higher on Friday, with weekly gains of about 1%, due to stronger Chicago soybean oil.

The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives' June crude palm oil contract was up 0.18% to 4,470 Malaysian ringgit ($1,130.07) per metric ton. The July palm oil contract was largely flat at 4,503 ringgit/mt.

However, futures declined over the month by around 1.5%, as weaker exports weighed on sentiment and as crude oil prices eased on peace deal hopes between the US and Iran.

Malaysian ringgit also firmed against the US dollar by a further 0.1% in May, following a 2% gain in April. This kept Malaysian export cargoes costlier for international buyers.

For the May 1-25 period, Malaysian shipments were estimated to have declined between 14.5% and 18.0% from a month earlier, according to cargo surveyors cited by Trading Economics.

Demand for Malaysian palm oil may increase as Indonesia tightens its oversight of shipments by routing exports of palm oil and other commodities to a state-backed entity.

In India, world's top palm oil importer, "refiners have already begun internal scenario planning for accelerated Malaysian palm oil sourcing, increased domestic crush of soybean and rapeseed, and renewed evaluation of South American soybean oil contracts," Globoil Intelligence said, as buyers start diversifying their procurement strategies.

While tightening global supply will support palm oil prices going forward, Indonesia's export revamp could weigh on margins and valuation of plantation firms, which have already seen a decline in shares following the announcement, analysts said.

Indonesia's new export policy is reportedly slated to begin in September, according to Trading Economics, while its mandate to increase palm-based biodiesel blending to 50% from the current 40% is set to start in July.

In Malaysia, the government will begin rolling out a new biodiesel blend mandate of 15% in June. This is up from the current blending ratio of 10%.

In the US, June ethanol prices on the NYMEX recovered 1.77% to about $2.02 per gallon on Thursday, as weekly production rose.

Data from the US Energy Information Administration showed that output averaged 1.09 million barrels per day in the week ended May 22, a decline from 1.11 mmbbls/d a week earlier.

Exports, on the other hand, dropped week over week to 102,000 barrels per day from 149,000 b/d, while domestic stocks grew to 25.0 million barrels from 24.9 mmbbls.

Related Articles

Commodities

Conflicting Reports on Iran, US MOU as Iranian Media Now Claims Draft Not Finalized Yet

The text of a potential agreement between US and Iran has not been finalized, multiple media outlets reported, citing a report by Iran's Tasnim News Agency.Media reports stating that the text of the memorandum of understanding has been finalized are inaccurate, citing Tasnim news agency.Earlier on Thursday, Axios reported that US and Iranian negotiators have tentatively agreed to a 60-day memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire and begin talks on Iran's nuclear program. The MOU is pending US President Donald Trump's final approval, Axios reported, citing two US officials and a regional source involved in the mediation.Now, several reports are citing Tasnim that Iran has not reached out yet to the Pakistani mediator about the final draft and both the mediator and the public would be notified upon completion of the MOU.The proposed deal could be announced as early as Sunday, Axios had reported earlier, although officials cautioned it has not been finalized and could still collapse.US Vice President JD Vance also hinted on Thursday while address the media that the deal might take a while to materialize.

Commodities

Market Chatter: Accident at Kazakhstan's Tengiz Oilfield Causes Sharp Output Decline

Kazakhstan's largest oilfield Tengiz, which is led by US energy major Chevron (CVX), saw a sharp decline in output earlier this week following an accident, Reuters reported Friday, citing two industry sources.The sources did not elaborate on the nature or cause of the accident, and expect output to be gradually restored in about a week. The report cited another source, who said production levels had risen to 82,000 metric tons by Wednesday.Daily production levels at the oilfield, located near the Caspian Sea west of the country, usually average around 125,000 tons or 995,000 barrels. However, output was down to 5,000-10,000 metric tons on Tuesday, the report said.The report cited Chevron stating a part of the oilfield had faced minor operational disruption on Thursday and output is being restored.Kazakhstan accounts for about 2% of the daily global crude oil supply, which is primarily transported through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium to the port of Novorossiysk in Russia.In January, production at the Tengiz field was suspended due to an issue related to power distribution. Output was restored to normalcy only April, the report added.has reached out to Chevron and Tengiz oil field operator Tengizchevroil for comments.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

$CVX
Commodities

Market Chatter: Activist Investor Proposes Sempra to Spin Off Electric Utility Subsidiary Oncor

Voss Capital has asked California-based energy giant Sempra (SRE) to spin off its majority-owned utility subsidiary Oncor to create a Texas-focused utility and unburden it from Sempra's predominant California focus, Reuters reported Thursday, citing sources and a letter from the activist investor to investors.In the letter seen by Reuters, the Houston-based hedge fund said an independent Oncor has the potential to be the country's highest-growth public transmission utility and reach a valuation of almost $78 billion by 2028, which compares to Sempra's near $59 billion market capitalization.Sempra owns an 80% stake in Oncor and the value of its stake in an independent Oncor has the potential to be worth more than its current market value, Voss Capital said.Voss Capital owns about 2 million shares, or under 1% stake, in Sempra, Reuters reported.Sempra spent $9.45 billion in 2018 to acquire its stake in Oncor, which provides power to over 4 million homes and businesses in Texas through 144,000 miles of transmission lines, the report said.has reached out to Sempra and Voss Capital for comments.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

$SRE