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Biofuels Update: Chicago Soybean Complex Retreats as Malaysian Palm Oil Firms

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The Chicago soybean complex eased further on Wednesday amid crude oil price fluctuations and improved weather conditions, while Malaysian palm oil remained supported as exports grew.

The September soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade slipped 0.60% to $11.52 per bushel in early trade. The September CBOT soybean oil contract fell 0.21% to 68.06 cents per pound.

Forecasts of regular rainfall across Midwest and lower temperatures in the first half of August improved yield prospects and pressured prices.

Soybean crop rating in the US has remained relatively low, with 63% of planted crops in good-to-excellent condition in the week ended Aug. 2, according to the US Department of Agriculture. The rating is unchanged from the previous week's figure and down from last year's 69%.

This year's US soybean harvest is reportedly projected at 53 bushels per acre, equivalent to 4.47 billion bushels, according to preliminary estimates by brokerage StoneX.

Meanwhile, exports to China limited price downside, with USDA reporting another 132,000 metric tons of sales to the country for delivery in the 2026/27 marketing year.

"Overall, improved weather and falling oil prices present short-term pressure, but strong exports and a below-average good-to-excellent rating provide underlying support," price reporting agency MySteel said.

It expects soybean futures to trade between $11.60/bushel and $12.20/bushel in the near term.

In Asia, Malaysian palm oil futures were mostly higher on Wednesday amid continued growth in exports.

The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives' September crude palm oil contract dipped 0.13% to 4,646 Malaysian ringgit ($1,134.55) per metric ton, although the October contract and the continuous contract rose by 0.13% to 4,702 ringgit/mt.

Cargo surveyors reportedly estimated Malaysian shipments in July to have risen between 12.1% and 19.5% from a month earlier. A Reuters survey also showed a 14.8% growth.

This followed a 5.7% month-over-month increase in exports in June, according to Malaysian Palm Oil Board data. The agency is set to release the official July industry data on Aug. 10.

Indonesian exports of crude and refined palm oil have also remained robust in H1, with statistics bureau data showing a year-over-year growth to 11.3 million metric tons from the 2025 level of 11.0 mmt.

For July alone, however, shipments have dropped to 2.4 mmt from the prior year's 2.7 mmt, following the implementation of a higher 50% biodiesel blend.

In top buyer India, palm oil imports in July have surged 50% from a month earlier to 733,000 mt, according to dealers cited by Reuters, as buyers stock up ahead of festivities. Soybean imports also grew 32% to 501,000 mt, bringing edible oil imports to their highest level in 10 months.

"...external demand performed well, which was favorable for the destocking of palm oil from production areas and supported spot prices," market intelligence provider SunSirs said.

Strong export demand, if sustained in the coming months, along with lower production following the peak season, could facilitate a drawdown in inventories. A Reuters survey indicated that Malaysian domestic stocks reached their five-month high in July, as levels rose 7.4% month over month.

Going forward, resilient demand could support palm oil futures, according to SunSirs.

El-Nino related supply risks are also expected to underpin prices, MySteel said.

Meanwhile, September ethanol prices on the NYMEX retreated 1.02% to $1.95 per gallon on Tuesday, tracking declines in the crude oil market.

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