Biofuel feedstock buyers will be monitoring global developments surrounding a forecasted Super El Nino weather pattern expected to impact global crop production beginning this summer.
El Nino is a natural, large-scale climate phenomenon marked by warmer-than-average sea-surface temperatures across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific, which trigger changes in atmospheric patterns, according to Shawn Conley, a University of Wisconsin soybean specialist.
A "Super" or "Very Strong" phenomenon occurs when water temperatures rise over 2 degrees Celsius above average.
"The growing talk of a 'Super' El Nino has taken center stage," Conley told.
Based on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's May outlook, there is an 82% chance of El Nino starting during the May-July season.
"After that season, the probabilities increase into the Northern Hemisphere winter with a 96% chance in December 2026 through February 2027. Typically, El Nino events maximize during the winter," Michelle L'Heureux, a physical scientist at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, told.
For the US, one of the largest soybean-producing countries in the world, the Midwest is typically drier and warmer than usual in winter during an El Nino, which may result in subpar soil moisture heading into the 2027 growing season, according to AccuWeather forecasters.
Conley analyzed past El Nino, La Nina, and neutral climate events to examine how soybean yields responded to these conditions in Wisconsin from 2008 to 2024.
"[Soybean] yield averages generally increased in more recent years. Precipitation varied much more from year to year. Temperature changed less than rainfall," Conley said.
He added that the El Nino phase alone does not explain soybean yield. "Very dry seasons often lined up with lower yields, but several recent years have had good yields even when rainfall was below normal."
With soybeans already in the ground, growers are facing a difficult combination of high production costs and low market prices, Conley said.
"Although there is no clear indication that El Nino will cause significant damage to the 2026 WI [Wisconsin] soybean crop, we are expecting that this will be one of the warmest growing seasons on record," Conley said.
Meanwhile, South America's soybean producers could benefit from favorable El Nino conditions during the 2026-2027 growing season.
The Southern Hemisphere summer of 2026-27, beginning in November, may bring dryness to key crop-producing areas of southern Africa and wetness to major corn- and soybean-producing regions of southern Brazil and northern Argentina, according to Brad Rippey, a meteorologist at the US Department of Agriculture.
Additionally, a key concern in South America is the risk of flooding, which has occurred during past strong El Ninos, according to AccuWeather.
"Argentina had lower yields this year due to dryness, and it looks as though yields should be higher in 2027 due to more rainfall. Brazil had near-record soybean yields, and I suspect it should have another good year in 2027. The only wildcard that could reduce yield is flooding, becoming a severe and widespread issue," Accuweather Lead International Forecaster Jason Nicholls said.