Berenberg updated its model for Harbour Energy (HBR.L), as analysts took note of the company's "strong performance" in the first half in a Monday research report.
For the six months ended June 30, 2026, the oil and gas company reported production of 509,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, or boe/d, up 4% year over year. Harbour Energy also updated its 2026 production guidance to a range of 490,000 boe/d to 500,000 boe/d, which Berenberg said represents a 1% increase at the midpoint of the company's prior forecast of 480,000 boe/d to 500,000 boe/d.
For 2027, the research firm expects "slightly lower" production alongside softer commodity prices, with analysts flagging "much lower" cash flow as a result.
"Our current modelling indicates much reduced FCF in 2027 of $235m. We assume a 1.5% reduction in production to 491kboe/d and lower commodity pricing, with the tax lag in Norway and the UK also affecting our forecasts. Assuming the company's 2026 FCF sensitivities hold into 2027 - ie $170m per $1/mcf and $150m per $5/bbl - our lower price deck of $9/mcf from $15/mcf and $75/bbl from $85/bbl would account for just over $1.3bn of the reduction," the note said.
Subsequently, Berenberg reduced its adjusted EPS estimates for 2026 through 2028. The stock's hold rating and price target of 2.45 pounds sterling were kept.