Berenberg on Thursday revised its earnings projections for TotalEnergies (TTE.PA, TTE.L, TTE.BR) after better-than-expected first-quarter results and increased shareholder returns.
For the three months ended March 31, the French energy giant reported an adjusted net income of $5.39 billion, which the research firm noted was 4% above Visible Alpha consensus. The group also raised its interim dividend by 5.9% to 0.90 euro per share and authorized the continuation of a $1.5 billion share buyback in the second quarter.
Accordingly, analysts increased their full-year 2026 EPS forecast by 6.5% on assumptions of higher refining and upstream earnings, while "minor changes" were made for the 2027 and 2028 estimates.
"TotalEnergies continues to execute well, benefiting from its integrated model, with all divisions across the group generating solid cash flow and returns. On top of this, the company has attractive growth prospects, along with a strong balance sheet. The stock has performed well year to date, benefiting from the visibility of Upstream growth and strong progress made in Integrated LNG and the Integrated Power division, which underpin the medium-term outlook for 4% growth in energy production. The dividend was increased by nearly 6% at Q1, leaving a 4.4% yield, and we expect a 3.5% buyback yield for FY26, with the buyback increased in Q1. The stock has rerated substantially this year, leaving it trading at a premium to recent history; stronger fundamentals can justify the rerating, but we see more limited upside from current levels and remain at Hold for now," Berenberg said, as it reiterated its price target of 78 euros.