Berenberg highlighted Equinor's (EQNR.OL) "more competitive" distribution guidance as the research firm revised its price target and earnings forecasts for the Norwegian energy company.
"Equinor held a capital markets day (CMD) on 16 June, outlining improved shareholder returns and more clarity on the distribution policy. The company also slightly increased its 2030 production targets, indicated a focus on fast payback, higher return investments in Norway, and is confident that growth in the international portfolio will deliver significant unit cost improvements. In our view, the headline messages were positive and the updated distribution guidance provides helpful clarity and provides confidence in the medium-term yield," the research firm said in a note published June 19, 2026.
Equinor plans to double its 2026 share buyback to $3 billion, which Berenberg analysts said implied a total shareholder yield of 9%. Starting in 2027, share repurchases are projected to come in between $2 billion and $4 billion, contingent on commodity prices and other factors.
Meanwhile, dividend per share is expected to grow by at least 5% annually, which analysts expect will drive overall yield to over 10% by the end of the decade.
Within this context, Berenberg lowered its price target to 320 Norwegian kroner from 365 kroner and reiterated its hold rating. The research firm also adjusted EPS assumptions for full-year 2026 to 2028 by 14.2%, 7.8% and 16.9%, respectively.