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Berenberg Lowers Repsol Estimates, Price Target After Q1 Update

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Berenberg cut its financial forecasts and price target for Repsol (REP.MC) after the Spanish energy group's first-quarter trading update.

"Repsol reported its Q1 2026 trading update on 9 April with a solid upstream performance offset by slightly weak numbers in refining - spot margins are volatile and the outlook here is likely to be key for Repsol over the coming months, in our view," analysts said Monday. "Overall, we reduce our Q1 group EBIT forecast to EUR1.3bn (5% ahead of Bloomberg) and our Q1 adjusted net income to EUR875m (5% behind Bloomberg). We take a slightly more cautious outlook on near-term refining margins and make some other modelling adjustments."

Over 2026 to 2028, adjusted EPS estimates were reduced by 20.6%, 16.7%, and 18.6%, respectively. Projections for dividend per share were lowered by 4.7%, 4.5%, and 4.5%.

Ahead of first-quarter earnings on April 30, the price target was cut to 27 euros from 29 euros, with an unchanged buy rating.

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