Berenberg maintained Saipem (SPM.MI) at buy, with the price target down to 5.05 euros from 5.25 euros, following the engineering and construction group's first-half results, according to a Wednesday note.
Saipem on Monday confirmed its 2026 revenue guidance of 15.5 billion euros, while updating its adjusted EBITDA forecast to 1.75 billion euros. Berenberg said the 8% cut in the outlook reflects "temporarily higher" regional operating costs tied to the Middle East conflict.
"If Middle East conditions persist in H2 at Q2 levels (ie continued project execution but with higher costs), the updated guidance could prove conservative, particularly as we expect some cost reimbursements, likely in 2027. While further regional escalation remains the key near-term risk, Saipem's underlying fundamentals remain strong," analysts said.
Subsequently, Berenberg lowered its sales, EBITDA, and EPS forecasts for 2026 through 2028. "While there are headwinds to FY26, we see scope for strong growth into FY27 due to an improved Middle East situation and stronger offshore drilling growth, although we trim our FY27 estimates for revenue and EBITDA by 1% and 3% respectively."