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Berenberg Forecasts Gas Trading Rebound for TotalEnergies in Q3; Hold Rating Maintained

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Berenberg anticipates a gas rebound for TotalEnergies' (TTE.PA, TTE.L) third quarter as trading headwinds are expected to fade in the second half.

"The gas trading loss largely reflected a view that European gas prices would rise, and this moved against the company at the end of the quarter. Gas prices have rebounded significantly, however, which potentially could lead to a strong rebound in trading profitability in Q3," analysts said Monday. "The recent escalation in the conflict in Iran could have a further material impact on production in Q3, but this would likely be more than offset by higher commodity prices - as was the case in Q2."

The research noted that the energy group met reduced expectations when it published its second-quarter results on July 23.

"Trading results were key drivers for the quarter, with CEO Patrick Pouyanné highlighting on the call that the strength in the Refining & Chemicals division was helped by oil trading being $500m higher than a "normal" quarter, while the weakness in Integrated LNG largely reflected gas trading profitability falling by c$800m qoq," Berenberg wrote, noting that key growth projects are still on track.

Against this backdrop, analysts lowered their adjusted EPS projections for full-year 2026 and 2027 by 3.7% and 5.3%, respectively, to account for an anticipated reduction in upstream earnings, while the 2028 EPS estimate was cut by 7.3%. The stock's hold rating and price target of 78 euros were maintained.

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