Berenberg anticipates BP's (BP.L) second-quarter performance will be supported by a robust downstream demand.
"We expect Q2 results broadly in line with current consensus, with a strong downstream result, driven by sharply higher refining margins, offsetting a weaker oil result (relative to consensus) due to lower volumes," according to a Wednesday note. The British energy giant is scheduled to report its second-quarter earnings on Aug. 4.
"The recent sharp fall in oil prices poses downside risks to our earnings estimates in H2 2026 and 2027, and the departure of chairman Albert Manifold has also highlighted the ongoing churn among leadership at BP, raising fears that the focus and urgency he was looking to bring to cost reductions and balance-sheet strengthening may be diluted. However, we expect the CEO to continue the focus on simplification and cost reductions, and we expect Q2 to contribute to a meaningful balance sheet improvement," analysts added, noting that robust cash generation and strategic divestments could support outperformance into the year-end.
Against this backdrop, the research firm revised its full-year 2026 and 2027 earnings forecasts downwards by 3.5% and 5.5%, respectively, reflecting lower anticipated oil earnings and elevated corporate expenses and minorities. Berenberg also trimmed its price target to 5.90 pounds sterling from 7 pounds and left its buy rating unchanged.