The Bank of Canada is expected to leave its policy rate unchanged on Wednesday for the sixth time in a row, acknowledging that inflation risks have eased as oil prices have fallen sharply in recent weeks, according to economists.
Policymakers are also likely to reiterate that there is little evidence higher energy prices have spilled over into broader inflation, while emphasizing that they remain prepared to tighten policy if inflationary pressures re-emerge, said economists.
UBS said in a note last week it sees a hold decision at the BoC, keeping the policy rate at 2.25%. "We expect the signal to remain standing pat amidst ongoing uncertainty with the Governor likely to lean into the scenarios that could lead to hikes (broader inflation pressures and stronger growth) or cuts (ongoing economic weakness with narrowly driven headline price pressures)."
Canada's central bank is likely to concede that growth has fallen short of its April forecast. Although activity is expected to recover in the second quarter, persistent economic slack and trade uncertainty support a cautious, wait-and-see policy stance.
"Growth still looks tepid, with Q1 GDP undershooting the Bank of Canada's April forecast and Q2 tracking only a mild rebound," wrote Royce Mendes of Desjardins in a preview published on Monday.
The BoC has set a high bar for any policy shift. Inflation concerns have eased as oil prices have fallen from recent highs, while economic data have improved after a weak stretch.
"Those factors will keep the BoC comfortable enough to keep from cutting rates again, while the persistent and sizeable output gap along with relatively tame underlying inflation limits the appetite for rate hikes," wrote Benjamin Reitzes of Bank of Montreal Capital Markets (BMO) in a Friday note.
On Wednesday, Canada's central bank will also release the new quarterly Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Most economists forecast tweaks in the BoC's gross domestic product growth and inflation estimates. April's MPR saw 2026 GDP growth at 1.2% and inflation at 2.3%.
The BoC may need to revise down its 2026 GDP growth forecast after the first quarter's small contraction, while it may revise up its inflation forecast in 2026, according to Derek Holt, vice-president and head of Capital Markets Economics at Scotiabank Economics.
The MPR should point to a "modestly encouraging backdrop that nonetheless leaves the Bank with no reason to move," wrote Karl Schamotta, Corpay chief market strategist, on Monday in a note.
As usual, BoC Governor Tiff Macklem will lead a press conference shortly after the policy statement is published at 9:45 a.m. ET Wednesday.