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Bank of Canada 'Dilemma' Solved as Oil Prices Fall Below Pre-Iran War Levels, Rosenberg Research Says

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The Bank of Canada's June Summary of Deliberations highlighted a key policy trade-off "dilemma" between responding to rising inflation and supporting economic growth, which Rosenberg Research said has been resolved.

At the June 10 policy meeting, WTI oil was around US$90 per barrel, having already partially retraced the surge resulting from the Iran war, Rosenberg said in a note Thursday.

By the release of the BoC's summary on Wednesday, oil had fallen back to just above US$70 a barrel, reversing most of the spike and breaking below its 200-day moving average, effectively easing the central bank's policy trade-off between hiking and cutting rates, Rosenberg said.

Bank policymakers remain cautious about the labor market, noting continued volatility in employment, according to the summary. As a result, even a few strong jobs reports are unlikely to alter the central bank's focus on the broader trend of weak employment, according to Rosenberg.

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