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Bab el-Mandeb Traffic Steadies as Sanctioned Tanker Hijacking Underscores Piracy Risk

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Vessel traffic in disrupted Middle Eastern chokepoints has shown signs of stabilization, according to ship-tracking data, even as a hijacking in the Gulf of Aden underscores the persistent security risks facing shipping in the region.

Bab el-Mandeb traffic shows signs of stabilization, Lloyd's List Intelligence strategists said in a note on Thursday.

"There were 223 AIS-enabled transits between 10 and 16 August, broadly in line with levels recorded after the Saudi naval blockade was imposed," analysts said.

LLI identified a total of 252 vessels passing through the strait during the reporting period, unchanged from the previous week.

"Weekly fluctuations remain significant, making it too early to determine whether traffic has fallen further following the initial decline after the maritime ban," LLI said.

Crude tankers are increasing tonnage through the route as very large crude carriers carrying Yanbu crude opt for the Suez Canal to avoid the disrupted Bab el-Mandeb, LLI analysts said, noting that heightened traffic reflects a "broader shift driven by multiple vessel segments."

Shipping operators are restoring Asia-Europe services sailing via the Suez Canal, analysts said.

LLI data showed MSC has increased transits, with seven vessels crossing the Bab el-Mandeb over the past two weeks.

Additionally, LLI cited Maersk saying that over 30% of Asia-Europe volumes previously routed around the Cape of Good Hope have returned to Suez, noting that conditions for a full return have largely been met.

Despite this, LLI says mainstream crude tanker transits through Bab el Mandeb remain subdued.

"Some owners and operators continue to avoid Saudi Red Sea port calls. However, oil exports from ports such as Yanbu continue, with some tankers disabling AIS during loading and then exiting via the Suez Canal," according to the note.

Meanwhile, broader risks have emerged as a US-sanctioned tanker reportedly sailing under a false flag was hijacked in the Gulf of Aden and redirected towards Somalia, according to MarineTraffic Thursday.

A total of six armed individuals reportedly boarded the tanker, taking control of the vessel.

MarineTraffic data show the 32,200-dwt oil products tanker updated her AIS destination to Port Sudan on Aug. 14 and entered the Somalia "high-risk" area on Aug. 19.

"Her latest AIS position before the reported boarding showed her sailing west-southwest through the Gulf of Aden at around 9.3 knots, with a reported draught of 10.9 metres," MarineTraffic said on X.

The US Office of Foreign Assets Control sanctioned the vessel in December 2025 for transporting Iranian petroleum products, including naphtha and gasoil.

Meanwhile, the International Maritime Organization's daily Strait of Hormuz incident tracker showed 68 confirmed maritime security incidents had been recorded as of Friday.

The IMO tracker provides a daily log of verified strikes on ships attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz since the conflict began, with the earliest incident recorded on March 1.

As of Aug. 20, US forces have redirected 67 commercial vessels, disabled three and boarded two to ensure compliance, according to a US Central Command post on X on Thursday.

Separately, Nato is reportedly hosting talks to secure the Strait of Hormuz, according to multiple reports on Friday. Nato's Supreme Allied Commander, US General Alexus Grynkewich, reportedly met with other defense leaders for talks on partner support to secure ship flow in the strait.

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