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Australian Job Ads Rise in August, But Poised to Trend Lower as Economic Momentum Fades

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Australian Job Ads Rise in August, But Poised to Trend Lower as Economic Momentum Fades

Labor demand in Australia remained resilient in August with a rise in the number of job advertisements, but the volume of ads is expected to trend lower over the coming months as the impact of the central bank's monetary tightening takes hold.

ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads, a monthly indicator that tracks the total number of internet job advertisements across select websites, rose by a seasonally adjusted 2.5% month over month in August following an upwardly revised 1.9% increase in July, ANZ Research said in a Monday release.

The growth was driven by notable gains across Victoria, Western Australia, and Queensland as local businesses started Christmas-related hiring, leading to a surge in retail and food service roles, the data showed.

The education and cleaning and sanitation sectors also posted strong gains, but tech-related hiring continued to slow, with software development, data and analytics, and other tech roles seeing a modest decline in demand in recent months.

But as labor market conditions typically respond to changes in economic activity with a lag, ANZ expects job ad volume to gradually decline as economic momentum softens and higher interest rates act as a restraint on demand.

The Reserve Bank of Australia raised borrowing costs three times this year, but held the rate at 4.35% at its two most recent meetings in June and August. More hikes may be on the cards as policymakers remain concerned about upside risks to inflation, which remains above target.

Australia's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased to 4.5% in July from 4.4% in the previous month as employment fell by 15,800 people, official Australian Bureau of Statistics data showed in August.

"While the ABS highlighted larger-than-usual uncertainty around the estimates, we continue to expect labor market conditions to ease and unemployment to drift higher gradually over the months ahead," said Jasmine Zheng, a senior economist at ANZ. But given the resilience of the ANZ-Indeed series, "we expect the rise in the unemployment rate to be modest," Zheng said.

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