Trimmed mean inflation in Australia is forecast to have risen 0.3% month-over-month in April, which would see annual growth accelerate to 3.4% and three-month annualized growth around 3.2%, ANZ said in a note on Friday.
Headline inflation is likely to have risen 0.5% month-over-month, or 4.3% on an annual basis.
The April inflation data will be important in showing the speed and extent to which higher input costs, such as fuel, aluminium, plastics, helium, and fertilizer, are flowing through to the broader inflation basket. While these second-order impacts are likely to accelerate over the coming months, the magnitude of their impact in April is likely to be small, the bank said.
It expects to see around an 8% month-over-month decline in automotive fuel, partly due to the halving of the fuel excise. There are also reports of sharp rises in the cost of building materials, including pipes, timber, and plastic.
Housing is likely to have risen 0.3% month-over-month in April. Alcohol and tobacco are also likely to have increased 0.3%, while food and non-alcoholic beverages are expected to see a 0.5% rise.
Transport is likely to have declined 3% in April, recreation and culture is likely to have lifted 2.7%, and clothing and footwear is likely to have increased 4.5%. Insurance and financial services are likely to be broadly unchanged.