Aussie Broadband's (ASX:ABB) challenging subscriber growth environment is now reflected in its share price, but a potentially successful execution of the company's fiscal 2028 ambitions is not currently priced in, Jarden said in a Monday note.
The company's core subscriber update disappointed relative to market forecasts as momentum slowed, although the results came in just ahead of Jarden's previous estimates.
The risk now skews to the upside should the company deliver on its fiscal 2028 target for underlying earning before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of AU$270 million. Jarden's forecast sits at AU$243 million, around 10% below the company's goal.
The investment firm said it is increasingly inclined to look through the near-term subscriber softness toward the fiscal 2028 target, with the delivery of a roughly AU$20 million re-platforming program and a rebased but stable core residential book being among the key factors.
Aussie Broadband also confirmed the completion of a suite of strategic transactions, including the AGL Telco and Nexgen acquisitions.
"In our view, the four transactions in six months have re-shaped the equity story from a predominantly organic residential challenger into a larger, multichannel scale platform," Jarden said.
It maintained a neutral rating on the company with a price target of AU$5.50.
Aussie Broadband shares fell 2% in recent Tuesday trade.