Malaysian palm oil futures ended lower on Monday following crude oil prices after the US and Iran moved closer to a peace deal, but a possible boost to the country's exports once Indonesia implements sales restrictions, limited losses.
The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives' June crude palm oil contract slipped 0.45% to 4,410 Malaysian ringgit ($1,114.90) per metric ton. The July palm oil contract lost 0.38% to 4,446 ringgit/mt, to reverse the previous session's gains.
Slowing Malaysian exports also pressured prices, with May 1-20 shipments reportedly falling between 13.9% and 20.5% from a month earlier, according to cargo surveyors cited by Trading Economics.
A 0.4% gain in the local currency versus the US dollar made exports less competitive due to resulting higher prices for foreign buyers.
Going forward, Malaysia's export-driven palm oil industry may find support from Indonesia's new export policy, which aims to channel some commodity exports via a state-backed agency to enhance oversight of shipments.
The Indonesian government will reportedly provide updates on the policy in the coming weeks, with plans to begin a phased implementation in June.
The export plan has resulted in a steep decline in Indonesian palm oil fresh fruit bunch prices, to around 1,000 Indonesian rupiah ($0.06) per kilogram from 2,800 rupiah/kg, according to a palm oil farmer association cited by Reuters.
Traders, mills, and companies withheld purchases and temporarily halted sales due to unclear export mechanisms, affecting farmers in the region, the news agency reported.
As traders assessed the impact of the export overhaul, palm oil buyers reportedly bought spot cargoes at low rates despite a strengthening in futures last week, according to Bloomberg.
"Indonesia's palm oil export mandate policy is causing disruption and divergence in the global palm oil market," price reporting agency MySteel said.
S&P Global Ratings, as cited by Reuters, said the policy change could create macroeconomic uncertainties for Indonesia as both exports and government revenue decline.