Aristocrat Leisure's (ASX:ALL) content market share will need to triple to around 10% for it to achieve its $1 billion interactive revenue ambition, according to a Wednesday note by Jarden.
However, Jarden's base case assumes share doubles to around 7%.
Aristocrat has held its dominant US position for the iLottery business and converted its leadership into tangible new business. However, there are limited new tender opportunities ahead of fiscal 2029 and category pressure in Michigan.
Aristocrat's market-leading game performance should continue to support net install momentum.
The investment firm retained its buy rating for Aristocrat and a price target of AU$65.
Aristocrat Leisure's shares rose past 1% in recent Thursday trade.