As Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies prepare to meet on Sunday, industry experts highlighted that structural constraints, geopolitical risks, and potential shifts in cartel membership threaten long-term market control despite crude oil continuing to exit the Persian Gulf.
Analysts said that while a Venezuelan exit would primarily serve as a symbolic blow given that ramping production back to 3 million barrels per day would take a decade or more experts note it would reflect the cartel's steadily declining reach relative to surging US exports and shifting global trade routes.
Samer Hasn, senior market analyst at XS.com, toldthat Venezuelan exit is "very likely," noting it could be framed as a move to ease friction between producing superpowers and would further reflect the group's declining influence relative to surging US exports.
Aaron Kildow, senior oil market analyst at Sparta, toldthat any exit would likely coincide with a 3-to-5-year brownfield production wave marketed toward Western buyers, shifting the core market-share battleground into Western markets as Asian buyers structurally diversify away from Arab Gulf grades.
Simon Lack, portfolio manager of Catalyst Energy Infrastructure Fund, concurred that an exit would not meaningfully alter near-term supply given that ramping production back to 3 million barrels per day from current levels will take a decade or more, but it would visually underscore the group's diminishing reach.
Ahead of Sunday's meeting to set production policy, energy market analysts are also evaluating how regional chokepoints, technical constraints, and shifting geopolitical alignments will shape 2027 quota baselines.
Experts diverge on how effectively the cartel can manage production targets amid lingering vulnerabilities.
Addressing the impact of maritime chokepoints, Hasn said that OPEC has regained some control as shipping security in the Strait of Hormuz recovers.
However, Hasn cautioned that assuming long-term stability is unwise, noting that a return to escalation after the midterm elections in the US in November could render OPEC adjustments ineffective and pressure Iranian floating inventories.
Hasn added that "in any case, I believe that asserting the sustainability of the continued recovery of supplies from the strait is unwise at present."
Echoing concerns over physical flows, Kildow, noted current production quotas more as aspirational goals than achievable near-term realities.
"I view production quotas as more of a goal than anything actually achievable in the very near term," Kildow said.
The analysts further pointed out that Arab Gulf members are struggling to push barrels to market, and members will likely rush to ramp up toward quotas only once the Strait of Hormuz and Black Sea are entirely secure.
Lack said that while flows prove that ships are getting out with the help of the US Navy, overall OPEC production remains down, while US exports rise, gradually eroding the cartel's market control.