-- Altria Group (MO) could deliver a slight Q1 earnings beat that may drive positive revisions to full-year expectations, supported by improving cigarette volume trends and share gains, despite softer price/mix and on! nicotine pouch off-take, UBS Securities said.
The brokerage said in a Tuesday research note that improving Smokeable segment volumes are expected to help Altria return to revenue growth, with cigarette shipment declines moderating versus consensus and early signs of volume share gains.
The investment firm expects Smokeable operating income to benefit from factors including duty drawback activity, though this is partly offset by mix pressure from the deep discount Basic brand and ongoing investment. UBS also sees price/mix improving from Q2 onward as these headwinds ease.
In Smokeless, UBS forecast Q1 sales growth of 2.0%, with 45 million on! cans and OCI declining 1.7%. This implies Q1 Group revenue and OCI growth of 1.6% and 0.6%, respectively, and EPS growth of 2.4% to $1.26.
The brokerage expects full-year earnings per share growth of 5.5% to $5.72 and sees potential for acceleration into 2026 and 2027. UBS said it does not expect guidance changes at this stage.
Altria is scheduled to report Q1 results on April 30.
UBS maintained a buy rating on the company with a $74 price target.
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