AlphaValue/Baader Europe raised its earnings assumptions for Shell (SHEL.L, SHELL.AS), citing its full-year 2025 performance and commodity trends for 2026 to 2028.
In a note published Wednesday, analysts increased their EPS estimates for the oil and gas giant by 28.3% to $4.28 for 2026 and by 22% to $4.51 for 2027.
"Our revised EPS estimates reflect the resilient FY25 delivery (Adjusted Earnings of $18.5bn, [free cash flow] of $26.1bn) and a stronger 2026-28 commodity setup, partly offset by softer Downstream margins and elevated cash [capital expenditure] of $20.9bn. Adjusted net profit holds around $20bn in 2026-27, before easing to $18.6bn in 2028 as Brent eases toward $75/[barrel]," analysts said.
The research firm also updated its estimates for the company's diluted share count over 2026 to 2028, considering the 3.5 billion-euro buyback completed in the third quarter of 2025 and another equally sized program for completion in the first quarter of 2026.
The stock is rated add, with a price target of 42.69 pounds sterling.