AlphaValue/Baader Europe upgraded its rating and EPS forecasts for Equinor (EQNR.OL), as the research firm boosted its commodity price deck and volume estimates.
In a Tuesday note, analysts said they raised their European gas price assumptions through 2028 and increased Brent crude forecasts for 2026 and 2027, while leaving the 2028 oil outlook unchanged.
"Gas is the more durable pillar of the two, with Russian piped volumes leaving Europe next year and the Hormuz risk restricting [liquefied natural gas] flows into a market that enters the winter with real uncertainty," the note said.
The research firm also revised its volume projections for 2026 to 2028 to align with the Norwegian energy company's growth outlook, adding its previous estimates were "simply too low." Reflecting continuous share retirements under a $3 billion buyback program, analysts reduced their 2026 diluted share count estimate for Equinor to 2.43 billion from 2.53 billion previously.
Against this backdrop, AlphaValue/Baader Europe changed its rating on the stock to reduce from sell, with a price target of 382 Norwegian kroner, while lifting its 2026 and 2027 EPS forecasts to $5.74 and $5.15, respectively, from $5.11 and $4.04.