AlphaValue/Baader Europe revised its earnings forecasts for Shell (SHEL.L, SHELL.AS), citing an upward revision to the research firm's expected commodity prices and the oil and gas giant's acquisition of Canadian energy company ARC Resources.
Analysts said Monday that they raised their Brent crude oil and European gas assumptions, noting that gas "looks more supportive" out of the two. The research firm also raised its net income forecasts for Shell's upstream and integrated gas divisions, noting the former drove most of the changes.
"The acquisition of ARC Resources, expected to close in Q3 2026, adds [90 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day] from 2026 and 180kboe/d on a full-year basis from 2027, taking segment production from 1,143kboe/d to 1,293kboe/d. ARC also contributes to Upstream, adding 60kboe/d in 2026 and 120kboe/d thereafter," the note said.
Against this backdrop, the research firm expects Shell's attributable net income to reach $31.7 billion in full-year 2026, $28.7 billion in 2027, and $22.9 billion in 2028, moderating in line with the expected decline in oil prices. Analysts also lifted their EPS forecasts for 2026 and 2027 to $5.76 and $5.57, respectively, from $4.45 and $4.48.
AlphaValue/Baader Europe rates the stock at add, with a price target of 43.68 pounds sterling.