Renewables are set to surpass half of global power generation by 2033 as demand nearly doubles to 56,000 terawatt-hours by 2050, Rystad Energy said in its Energy Macro Report Thursday.
Renewables accounted for 89% of new power capacity added in 2025, with their share of global generation set to reach 36% by the end of 2026, Rystad Energy said.
Renewables could surpass half of global power generation by 2033 as falling costs support continued expansion, although growth rates should moderate from the previous decade.
Asia will lead long-term generation growth, with China expected to source more than half its electricity from renewables by the early 2030s, according to Rystad Energy.
In the US, renewables will meet growing energy needs while gas retains a key role in reliability, with data centers driving concentrated, continuous power demand.
Gas turbine order books now stretch three years ahead, while major original equipment manufacturers carry backlogs that commit production capacity through 2028 and beyond, Rystad Energy said.
Transformer makers added 86 gigavolt-ampere-seconds of capacity in 2025 and could increase annual additions toward 160 GVA through 2028, with the US accounting for nearly 40% of the growth.
China continues to hold cost and scale advantages in solar modules, battery cells and wind components, although manufacturers are gradually expanding production into other markets.
Battery storage costs have fallen by half in five years, making energy arbitrage the main revenue source for operators in mature markets such as Australia, the report said.
Rising renewable penetration is shifting gas toward a role of flexibility, while pumped hydro capacity could more than triple by 2040 as storage becomes increasingly important.
Data centers could account for 4% of global electricity demand by 2035, while their $770 billion in 2025 capital spending has already exceeded upstream oil and gas investment, Rystad Energy said.
More than half of announced data center power projects may not materialize by 2035, with grid queues, equipment delays and permitting limiting execution, Rystad Energy said.
Developers increasingly use behind-the-meter gas, fuel cells and on-site generation to secure power for projects amid grid constraints.
Announced project pipelines have hit record levels, but transformers, turbines, grid connections, permits and skilled labor remain key delivery constraints.
Rystad Energy's asset database highlights the gap between announced plans and deliverable capacity, making early access to scarce inputs and realistic timelines increasingly important for developers, utilities and investors.