Declining US shale inventory will shift future North American supply reliance toward Canada's deeper resource base by 2035, according to a new Enverus report released on Tuesday.
Enverus notes that while US shale sector is maturing rather than collapsing, the economics of maintaining supply are tightening. It said that the marginal cost of US oil supply is projected to climb from about $70 a barrel for West Intermediate Texas today to roughly $90 a barrel by 2035 on a PV-50 basis.
This shifting landscape positions Canada to play a vital role in sustaining continental energy supply, according to Enverus data and it forecasts that Canadian oil production will expand by 1.5 million barrels per day, reaching 7.0 million barrels per day by 2035.
However, realizing production growth will demand significant capital rotation toward upstream development, alongside critical expansions in pipeline and liquefied natural gas export infrastructure, according to EIR.
meanwhile, US crude oil production is expected to grow before peaking in the early 2030s as low-cost reserves become increasingly limited, the North American inventory report by EIR added.