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ABN AMRO Group Economics Notes Europe's Reliance on LNG Boosts Exposure to Global Disruptions

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Europe's reliance on liquefied natural gas has increased since 2022, raising its exposure to global LNG disruptions, ABN AMRO Group Economics said in a Wednesday note.

European gas prices initially surged on the Iran conflict but later eased as Asian demand weakened and U.S. LNG inflows rose, ABN AMRO said.

The recent preliminary agreement between the U.S. and Iran provided relief, pushing Title Transfer Facility prices down by about 15%, although short-term prices remain higher than long-term ones, the bank said.

High injection season prices have discouraged storage filling, leaving EU storage at a seasonal low of 44.7%. Stable flows from Norway and the U.S., returning supply from Qatar and weaker competition from Asia is expected to allow Europe to hit 75% storage by October, ABN AMRO said.

The bank expects gas prices to remain above seasonal averages at 46 euros per megawatt-hour in the second quarter, 43 euros/MWh in the third quarter, and 48 euros/MWh during the heating season.

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