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Commodities
Strong Fuel Margins Support C-Store Operators in Q1, RBC Capital Markets Says
Resilient fuel margins and steady consumer demand have supported convenience store or C-store operators, who are expected to post a solid Q1, RBC Capital Markets analysts said in a note on Monday.The firm maintained a positive outlook on the sector despite rising fuel prices, geopolitical tensions linked to the Iran conflict, and increasingly value-conscious consumer behavior."Relative strength in gas margins, long-term track record of demand stability, and sustained momentum from CQ4 [calendar quarter 4] continuing into CQ1 are supportive of our constructive view of the sector despite the backdrop of heightened geopolitical risk, elevated crude prices related to the Iran conflict, and ongoing value-oriented consumer spending," analysts said.Analysts said that historically, volatility in oil and fuel prices has presented an opportunity for more sophisticated operators to extend a premium over industry-average gas margins, with fuel margins improving consistently over the past decade."Despite recent spike in gas prices, retail pricing remains at/around 2023/2024 peaks, and well below peak levels immediately post Russia invasion of Ukraine," analysts said.Gas demand, however, continues to fall below pre-Covid levels, with analysts attributing crude price volatility post the Iran conflict to fuel incremental pressure on volumes."Fuel demand continues to track below pre-pandemic levels, reflecting structural shifts in lifestyle and commuting patterns, higher cost of living, and more recently, demand elasticity from geopolitical-driven spike in gas prices," analysts said.RBC forecasts Q1 US fuel margins of 45.75 cents per gallon for Alimentation Couche-Tard, a premium of about 8 cents/gal over the industry quarter-to-date average. Analysts said the forecast is above the high end of the range of prior premiums over the past eight quarters, which ranged from 3 cents/gal to 6 cents/gal, reflecting significant fuel price volatility amid the geopolitical backdrop.For Casey's (CASY), RBC forecasts margins of 39 cents/gal, while Murphy USA (MUSA) is expected to post retail and all-in margins of 24.5 cents/gal and 32.7 cents/gal, respectively.
$CASY$MUSA
Research
Research Alert: Arch Capital Produces Improved Q1 Underwriting Profits Amid A Tough Market
CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:ACGL posted Q1 operating EPS of $2.50 vs. $1.54 prior year, beating the $2.46 consensus but missing our $2.62 estimate. Operating revenues declined 1.3% Y/Y, significantly below our 8%-15% growth forecast, reflecting 4.8% lower earned premiums partly offset by 8% higher investment income. We view ACGL as a top-tier underwriter with superior underwriting capabilities, maintaining strong profitability metrics despite competitive headwinds. We expect significant questions on the April 29 call regarding written premium shortfalls, as net written premiums declined 3.7% Y/Y. Underlying underwriting results remained superior to industry averages, with the combined ratio at 82.3% vs. 81.0% prior year, about 5-10 points better than industry. While the lack of meaningful top-line growth is concerning, we believe ACGL shares remain undervalued vs. peer and historical averages given the company's superior underwriting track record and profitability metrics.
$ACGL
Research
Research Alert: Stx Easily Beats Expectations On Ai Strength; Nearly Sold Out Through Cy 2027
CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:Q3 results exceeded expectations with revenue of $3.11B (+44% Y/Y) beating consensus of $2.96B and non-GAAP EPS of $4.10 (+116% Y/Y) crushing expectations for $3.50. STX's outlook was even more impressive, with Q4 guidance midpoints of $3.45B in revenue and $5.00 in EPS beating by 9% and 26%, respectively. Gross margin of 47.0% (+1,080 bps Y/Y) and operating margin of 37.5% (+1,400 bps) demonstrate impressive pricing power and a rising HAMR mix, while FCF of $953M exceeded expectations for $762M and roughly quadrupled Y/Y, helping net leverage decline to 0.7x from 1.1x last quarter. Perhaps most important, nearline capacity (90% of exabytes shipped in Q3) is now nearly sold out through CY 2027, with customer discussions extending into 2028, a significant extension from Q2's update (sold out through CY 2026). Data center revenue of $2.5B accelerated to 55% Y/Y growth, and we see a long runway as AI inferencing elevates demand for high-capacity nearline drives, with Mozaic 4+ (44TB per drive) leading the way.
$STX